The Friendly Cynic

On this page we aim to provide links to useful articles and even some of our own short papers that we hope will give an example of our independent thoughts.

The reason behind the name of this page is simple. Most good investors that we’ve met take into account potential downside risk factors first and foremost in order to protect wealth.  This is a crucial premise to accumulating wealth it as new opportunities for growth will always arise but having the capital to take advantage of these is crucial.

However in a world that has built industries with misaligned incentives we feel that it’s important to have a healthy amount of cynicism.

BSP hope to navigate our way through the minefield of misinformation and navigate around irrational markets. We aim to align our interests with investors, tailoring solutions to meet individual needs and explain risks clearly to help manage expectations.

We won’t get it right every time………but we aim to align our incentives so that we share in the overall success of our clients.

More to follow……..


UN World Population 2017 Revisions

BSP takes Demographics seriously, ageing populations lead to pension deficits and other social problems.

Some key takeaways from the report include:

  1. According to the results of the 2017 Revision, the world’s population reached nearly 7.6 billion in mid-2017. The world has added one billion people since 2005 and two billion since 1993.
  2. Roughly 83 million people are being added to the world’s population every year. Even assuming that fertility levels will continue to decline, the global population is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100.
  3. In recent years, fertility has declined in virtually all regions of the world except Europe. A reduction in the fertility level results not only in a slower pace of population growth but also in a more aged population
  4. In Europe, 25 per cent of the population is already aged 60 years or over and that proportion is projected to reach 35 per cent in 2050 and 36 per cent in 2100. Populations in other regions are also projected to age significantly over the next several decades. For Latin America and the Caribbean, the population will go from having just 12 per cent of the total at ages 60 and above in 2017 to having 25 per cent at these ages in 2050. Similarly, the population aged 60 or over in Asia is expected to shift from being 12 per cent of the total in 2017 to 24 per cent in 2050, while in Northern America it will move from 22 to 28 per cent, and in Oceania, from 17 to 23 per cent over the same period. Africa, which has the youngest age distribution of any region, is also projected to experience a rapid ageing of its population over the coming decades, with the percentage of its population aged 60 or over rising from 5 per cent in 2017 to around 9 per cent in 2050.
  5. Compared to 2017, the number of persons aged 60 or above is expected to more than double by 2050 and more than triple by 2100, rising from  62 million in 2017 to 2.1 billion in 2050 and 3.1 billion in 2100. For this age range, 65 per cent of the global increase between 2017 and 2050 will occur in Asia, 14 per cent in Africa, 11 per cent in Latin America and the Caribbean, and the remaining 10 per cent in other areas.
  6. The number of persons aged 80 or over is projected to triple by 2050, and by 2100 to increase to nearly seven times its value in 2017. Globally, the number of persons aged 80 or over is projected to increase from 137 million in 2017 to 425 million in 2050, and further to 909 million in 2100. In 2017, 27 per cent of all persons aged 80 or over reside in Europe, but that share is expected to decline to 17 per cent in 2050 and to 10 per cent in 2100 as the populations of other regions continue to increase in size and to grow older themselves.
  7. The 2017 Revision confirms that substantial improvements in life expectancy have occurred in recent years. Globally, life expectancy at birth has risen from 65 years for men and 69 years for women in 2000-2005 to 69 years for men and 73 years for women in 2010-2015. However, large disparities between countries remain. At one extreme, countries or areas with a life expectancy of 82 years or more for both sexes combined include Australia, Hong Kong SAR (China), Iceland, Italy, Japan, Macao SAR (China), Singapore, Spain and Switzerland.

    For the full report see here: WPP2017_KeyFindings